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Every prediction on this site is fitted to real completed matches — not vibes, not recycled tipster picks. See the probability, see the sample size behind it, then decide for yourself.
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- Leagues covered
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- Spanish La Liga51'
Valencia0
Celta Vigo024%
57%
20%
- Portuguese Primeira Liga86'
Estoril Praia0
Rio Ave236%
34%
29%
- Polish III liga Group III39'
Carina Gubin0
Zagłębie Sosnowiec046%
25%
29%
- Polish III liga Group IIILIVE
Barycz Sułów0
ROW 1964 Rybnik046%
25%
29%
Pulled live from football-data.org, API-Football and TheSportsDB.
Live from the model
What the numbers say right now
Pulled from the current slate the moment you loaded this page.
American USL Championship
Detroit City FC
Tampa Bay RowdiesAmerican USL Championship
Charleston Battery
Miami FCAmerican USL Championship
Colorado Springs Switchbacks
El Paso LocomotiveWhat you get
Everything you need to read a match properly
Most tipster sites hand you a pick and ask you to trust them. This one hands you the numbers and the sample size behind them.
A real model, not a hunch
Dixon-Coles goal modelling with time-weighted attack and defence ratings, fitted by maximum likelihood on completed matches. The same maths quant desks use.
Live scores that keep up
Every running match across the competitions we track, refreshed continuously with the clock and the scoreline straight from the feed.
Every market from one distribution
1X2, over/under, BTTS, double chance and correct score all read off the same scoreline grid — so the numbers can never contradict each other.
Value, after the bookmaker's cut
Paste in the odds you have been offered. We strip the margin, compare against the model's fair price and tell you the edge and a sane Kelly stake.
Nigeria first
NPFL and CAF competitions alongside the Premier League. Prices in Naira, kickoff times in WAT, written for how Nigerians actually bet.
It shows its working
Sample size, data quality and model uncertainty on every prediction. When the history is too thin, we say so and publish no pick at all.
How it works
Three steps, no black box
You can check every stage of this on the match pages. That is the point.
We pull the real results
Completed matches for the competition come in from the live feeds. Early in a season we reach back into previous campaigns so the ratings are never fitted on three games.
The model fits itself to them
Attack and defence ratings, home advantage and the low-score correction are all estimated by maximum likelihood, with recent matches weighted more heavily.
You get probabilities, with caveats
Those rates expand into a full scoreline distribution. Every market is read off it, alongside how much history is actually standing behind the number.
Coverage
The leagues on Nigerian betting slips
Ordered by how much they actually matter here — not by European convention.
Pricing
Priced for Nigeria
From a single matchday to a full season. Cancel whenever you like.
Free
Everything you need to stop betting blind.
- Live scores across every tracked league
- Fixtures up to 14 days ahead
- Full 1X2, over/under and BTTS probabilities
- Model transparency: sample size and data quality
- Bet slip builder with true combined odds
Weekend Pass
One matchday slate, full analysis. No subscription.
- Everything in Free
- Value detection against your bookmaker's odds
- Kelly staking guidance, capped and sane
- Asian handicap breakdowns
- Quick-Slip formats for SportyBet, 1xBet and BetKing
Pro
For bettors who stake often enough to care about edge.
- Everything in Weekend Pass, every matchday — no repurchasing week to week
- Full AI-written match breakdown, not just the opening paragraph
- The model's key factors spelled out for every fixture
VIP
For serious, high-volume stakers.
- Everything in Pro
- Live in-play win-probability, updating as the match unfolds
- Value-shift alerts (coming soon)
- Priority support (coming soon)
Questions
Straight answers
Are these real matches?
Yes. Every fixture, scoreline and result comes from live football data providers. Nothing on this site is generated or placeholder data — if the feeds return nothing, the page says so rather than filling the gap.
How accurate are the predictions?
They are probabilities, not forecasts. A 60% home win means the model expects that outcome roughly six times in ten — which also means four times in ten it will not happen. We publish the sample size and data quality behind every number so you can judge how much weight it deserves.
What model do you use?
A Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson model. Team attack and defence ratings, home advantage and a low-score dependency correction are fitted by weighted maximum likelihood on completed matches, with recent games weighted more heavily.
Why does a match sometimes have no pick?
Because there is not enough completed history in that competition to stand behind one. Rather than dress up a guess as analysis, the model output is shown with an explicit warning and no selection is published.
Do you cover the NPFL?
Yes, alongside the CAF Champions League and the European competitions Nigerians bet on most. Depth of NPFL data depends on which feeds are configured, and each prediction tells you what it was fitted on.
Is this legal in Nigeria?
This is an analytics product. We do not take bets, hold funds or act as a bookmaker. Sports betting is regulated in Nigeria and restricted to adults 18 and over.
Stop guessing.
Start reading the numbers.
Free to use, no card, no sign-up wall. Open today's slate and see what the model makes of it.